To give you an idea of my real world numbers in year one and 2, I will tell you how my prices went in Oregon without a cap.
Year 0 (adult use medical started, no rec licenses yet): Bulk whole plant was seeing $400-450/lb.
Year 1: Bulk whole plant become $325/lb with some serious haggling to get that extra $75. The buyer accidentally replied all on an internal email saying to only give us $250. Lol. This was a 25% drop in year one, and could have been a whopping 50% drop!
Year 2: Bulk whole plant hits $100/lb. Another 66% drop over year 1.
Year 3: So many failures in rec (50%) and even more in the black market should mean a good price. I expect about $150-200/lb, but I plan for the low of $100 to continue, just in case, and anything more is just icing on the cake. Please, please, please, I want a new tractor…
It’s like the dot-com boom or any new market craze. Tons of speculation on profits, but few good business models. Stock blow through the roof, peak, crash, bottom out and recovered about one third to halfway between the high and the low.
If your state caps, the prices drop will slow considerably. Oregon is a worst case scenario.