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Conventional Field Production

For real, they are trying, real hard.

We asked ourselves how we could survive on a bulk wholesale price of $100/lb. This is it. We now have a 2 years of a learning curve over, and now outdoor farms are switching to just oil crops. Others switch to just pushing clones. Everyone with a realistic business model will find their niche. Dreamers just spend money until it is GONE.

We got $325/lb in year one, and $100/lb in year 2. I am expecting it to bounce back to $125-$150/lb, but we can handle $100/lb if we hit yield goals.

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Is that $/lb for frozen wet weight?

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Ha! I wish!

Bone dry, untrimmed, minus stems and as much larger leaf as reasonably possible.

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That’s close to the lb rate for our fresh frozen! It varies between $150-$250lb. The live market out here is booming.

Crazy how different the markets can be just a few states away!

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Too bad I can’t ship to Las Vegas. My hash material buyer opened shop there and said what I grow is worth $1200/lb there… If all else is equal, that should be about $5000-6000/lb for good-good. They said nobody knows how to grow in Nevada, lol.

Oregon over produced by 3x consumption (no cap). 50% of producers either quit or sold to some sucker. The Liquor Control Comission agents are weed garbage men right now. They have collected thousands of pounds from failed businesses and destroyed the material. So, at least I have an in with these hash folks and was able to sell!

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Random near end of harvest shots from previous years.

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Is this for product that is specifically slated for hash/concentrate production?
Or do those numbers include dried flower?

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The numbers he posted are for dried plants for hash production.

@Farmer_Dan Nice pics!..As for Vegas, I believe it. I made it to MJ BizCon last year (where I found Grower’s Network!!). I was talking to a few owners there and they said they can’t grow it fast enough. They said they have 50 million tourists a year. Their market will be like none other just for that fact.

I bought a couple grams when I was there, and it was W-E-T. It sat for three days before I could smoke it. Decent quality, but definitely not dried/cured properly…which could come from the crazy demand they are experiencing.

I didn’t realize that Oregon over produced by that much! That is scary! Like you said, at least you have an in. Have they put a cap on the amount of growers yet?

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“Whole plant” is what we call it. Whole buds without stems or large leaf. It is for concentrating.

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I was talking with my agent and he unofficially said that he hopes they cap. I said that there is no need now. The free market crippled the black market and everyone self sorted. Maybe cap at the level of who is alive after the purge?

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Dry, cured indoor at 27% THC was being auctioned off at $250/lb!!!

It takes an iron stomach and an even stronger business plan to make it Oregon.

I caution everyone to assume what rock bottom prices could be and build a plan that has you putting food on your plate at that price.

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That is incredibly unfortunate. I see what you mean about not needing a cap now. The damage is done. But hopefully the market there will rise up again once the number of grows gets down enough. Fingers crossed anyways.

I see conventional ways being the long term way anyways…big ag has already figured out the most efficient ways to grow, we can definitely take notes from them. You are definitely on the right path!

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That’s brother, just trying to stay alive in a volatile market.

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How does that affect the price on the retail end?

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Hash prices are about half of what they were in year 1. Fire live resin use to be $60-80/g, and you can get all kinds for $30/g now. Low grade use to be $30/g and now it is $15/g. Cartridges haven’t gone down much, maybe $10 cheaper per gram. Flower on the other hand is variable. I don’t see how the $40 eighths go any where when there are plenty of good indoor eights for $20-25. Outdoor is like $10 an eight, tax included in that price.

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300lbs of urea (46-0-0) added to the field.


Shooting urea.


Urea concentration on soil surface.


Incorporating urea with a rotary tiller, giving it the final beat down, and killing off remaining weeds.

Next up, hilling and planting. T minus 6 days!!!

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Not once have I ever seen prices that low. An 8th here goes for 30-40 depending on what you’re getting. But that could change quickly after legalisation.

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It sure does…

License caps slow it down, but it is a good idea to cut 30% off current prices when planning to go rec. and projecting revenue for your business plan. Then cut another 30% in year 2 and hope it settles after that… Even if it isn’t that bad, being prepared is essential for survival. Definitely DO NOT count on current prices holding in a legal market…

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Brilliant advice! Thank you.

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To give you an idea of my real world numbers in year one and 2, I will tell you how my prices went in Oregon without a cap.

Year 0 (adult use medical started, no rec licenses yet): Bulk whole plant was seeing $400-450/lb.

Year 1: Bulk whole plant become $325/lb with some serious haggling to get that extra $75. The buyer accidentally replied all on an internal email saying to only give us $250. Lol. This was a 25% drop in year one, and could have been a whopping 50% drop!

Year 2: Bulk whole plant hits $100/lb. Another 66% drop over year 1.

Year 3: So many failures in rec (50%) and even more in the black market should mean a good price. I expect about $150-200/lb, but I plan for the low of $100 to continue, just in case, and anything more is just icing on the cake. Please, please, please, I want a new tractor…

It’s like the dot-com boom or any new market craze. Tons of speculation on profits, but few good business models. Stock blow through the roof, peak, crash, bottom out and recovered about one third to halfway between the high and the low.

If your state caps, the prices drop will slow considerably. Oregon is a worst case scenario. :joy::rofl::disappointed_relieved::sob:

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