Where We Are In The Cannabis Stock Market Cycle - An Update



In February 2018, I observed the cannabis stocks were transitioning from the first stage of the bull market to the second stage. I said investors should adjust their portfolio strategy.

I explained my view that the stock market and cannabis stock market cycle can be separated into three stages:

  1. The first is the bull market dynamic phase, which is an uptrend with few corrections.

  2. The second stage is the trading phase during which prices still rise but at a slower overall rate of gain and increased volatility.

  3. The third stage is the bear market that is a downtrend with few rallies of any size. Bear markets are shorter than bull markets and do not give back all of the previous bull market gains.

Today, I think it is clear that we are in stage two, and we may be transitioning into stage three or the Bear market. I realize the “B” word might strike fear into the heart of investors, but don’t let it happen. This is nothing more than another transition that implies a different set of policies that should guide your investment strategy.

In other words, we’re still rising in stocks, but it may not be long before there’s a decline. Keep an eye on your investments! Read the article for a more detailed analysis.


I have a felling that cannabis businesses will mirror the liquor and beer businesses in its financial cycles. So if the dreaded bear comes, as he most certainly will, beer and liquor both takes a hit late in the beer markets historically.

I think anecdotal stories from some of the older growers would be interesting.

The real answer will only come after the fact. Only time will tell.

I am still in a bullish mood.

I have some real concerns with our trade war with China. I am very concerned about our ag friends. If greater Ag is unhappy we will feel the pressure in the horticulture community. We always have.

My question about USA cannabis stocks deals more with some reporting issues of income and losses.

It would be easier for me with buy Canadian cannabis stock and use a Canadian holdings company. Report it as foreign income. Foreign taxed.

I see lots of growth opportunities in the cannabis industry.

I also see that we are losing some of the early adopters of commercial production.

The smarter growers are standing out!

I see a lot in the cannabis supply chain that I find particularly disturbing. Mostly with product vendors. But, this seems to be weeding itself out.

I think as an industry we need to work with the state ag extension group and start doing more cultivating our Ag programs.

If we want more science based production methodology we need to invest in our Ag schools. One of the best ways is create a growers network award for the outstanding graduate student in horticulture. Give the student $1000 bucks and they will remember you.

As an industry we needed to ready ourselves for the new generation of professional growers. Do we want them to work for us or compete against us?
If we keep our salaries sound, we will continue to attract the best and brightest.

As I said only time will tell.