If you are old enough to have been through the internet traps in the 90’s - this will ring a bell. Cannabis is the new internet - who will be the Pets.com of Cannabis? By my bet we are in a comparable state to about 1998 - there are maybe 2 years of boom before mass market realization that like everything before it - you need a good business model and connected customers to support growth…
I wouldn’t want to wish that experience on anyone, and I don’t know if I could hazard a guess. There’s a couple great documentaries on failed startups that both came out in 2001:
I’m sure people will go after the market hard, but the question will be whether they go the way of Pets.com or the way of Zappos.com. Both grew quickly, but one was built on wowing customers while the other was fueled by market speculation. Market speculation can work sometimes, but if you’re wrong, then you suffer the ultimate consequence–bankrupt business.
There’s another company in our space that had a a boom and burst phase: Growlife Inc. (PHOT) also known as Phototron. They are a public company on the OTC markets. They don’t have a huge amount of revenue for a public company, the highest being $8.5M in 2014, but they had so much hype in 2014 when the market was popping off due to WA and CO going rec. Their valuation almost hit $1 billion. Yes, a billion dollars for a company doing less than $10m revenue per year.
Then their company was plagued with insider trading and their online store (greners.com) wasn’t doing too hot anymore because they bought it from the original owner and they couldn’t manage it as well. They now have a new ecommerce company selling growing equipment, but I don’t think it’s doing too well (https://www.growlifeeco.com/). They did about $1.2m in 2016.
Here are some nice charts for ya, along with a link to their stock on Yahoo Finance:
Notice the huge valuation spike in 2014 bringing their stock to about $0.60 a share. Today they are at $0.01 a share.
My first bet would be to look at the unicorns… They are a fabled beast that find it hard to survive in the harsh reality of the marketplace… There are a few in the market at the moment - and their EPS ratios and other indicators are showing some really strong issues and warnings. In the internet days people were dreaming of crazy high valuations - now it seems many of those same dreamers are smoking some good shit and thinking the new cannabis business models are even better.
As I am reading this all I keep hearing in my head is…“please not us, please not us, please not us”. HAHAHA. Totally forgot about Pets.com, nice throwback!
Anyone that has a valuation of more than 10 times earning is a hot air balloon filled with dreams. Zappo’s is a great case in point - the consistency of building a product - they didn’t just emerge out of VC and hyped up shareholder thin air. They had a great business model and mentality that really drove growth and built a strong a loyal customer base.
lol… Never forget Pets.com… Learn from the mistakes of those before to ensure that you are not one of the “please not us, please not us, please not us”. The 90’s were an awesome time - everyone believed in the dream - seems kinda like now…
I would throw up Canopy Growth Corp in Canada - currently at around $1.5 billion - with maybe $20 million in revenue. They own half the medical market in Canada (50k) - can’t keep up supply to them - but want to own the emerging recreational market of 4+ million… Have sold the dream to heaps of investors, own the Stock market ticker WEED - but all the directors just sold out a bunch of their shares (knowing the market won’t get better for them when legalization creates increased competition for shitty business models). Keep selling the dream down the line to the next idiot. The greater fool theory is proven yet again.
I see 2016 as the starting point of branding , in a way like when everyone wanted a .com ,strain names,types of edibles i have been to large indoor grows,plants are been crossed and grown for wax only, no other people will ever have this strain, you only see this dab with their branding.this has just started I see the future and it is GREEN:wink:
Cannabis 3.0. It will be ALL about the brands…